ROME, 16 lug (Velino) - It may not be a Cold War yet, but it’s clear that Russia and the West have returned at the very least to the era of rivalry. The Kremlin statement accompanying the decree with which President Vladimir Putin unilaterally revoked the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), refers expressly to “extraordinary circumstances… concerning the security of the Russian Federation and which require immediate action”. The language reveals the historic syndrome of encirclement that has conditioned Russia from the revolution on and continues to influence Moscow’s foreign policy. The Russian and international press are unanimous in interpreting Putin’s decision as a reply to that of President George W. Bush to place significant technology for the interception of long range missiles in two former Warsaw Pact countries. But the standoff between the two rivals is not limited to the missile shield. Moscow and Washington are also divided over the enlargement of NATO to the east, the autonomy of certain former Soviet republics such as the Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus, the future of Kosovo and negotiations over the Iranian nuclear programme.
This last theme had been the principal success of the Maine summit between Bush and Putin at the beginning of the month. But following recent events and the small signs of opening coming out of Teheran in its latest contacts with officials of the AIEA, even the Iranian front could now be the subject of new disagreements. That looks more likely following the invitation to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to participate as a full member at the summit of the Shanghai Pact countries, where Iran has only observer status. The Pact is an intergovernmental organisation founded in 2001 and its full members are Russia, China and four central Asian republics. Over the last two years the organisation has made great strides, coordinating numerous aspects of policy among the six members and reaching significant military agreements between Moscow and Beijing. Some American analysts describe it as “the NATO of the East” and for some time now Russia and China have been voting together in the UN Security Council.
So even if it’s not a Cold War yet, it could become one in the not too distant future. Russia and China also have the means to bring Europe to its knees economically, the one by turning off gas supplies and the other through the unstoppable flow of its export goods. European leaders should therefore pay close attention to the possibility of a new era of conflict, given that the borders of the European Union now rub up against those of the former Soviet Union. One of the dilemmas for Europe at the moment is the question of the independence of Kosovo. That front also divides Moscow from Washington and the EU finds itself caught in the middle. The recent statements of the US ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, have given new vigour to the idea of a solution outside the UN context, with a unilateral declaration on the part of Pristina and an immediate recognition by the United States. If this should happen, the EU would have the dramatic task of deciding whether or not to proceed with recognition, risking – possibly in the midst of a military conflict in the Balkans – damaging its relations either with the US or Russia, and having to choose between the Serbs and the Kosovars. It’s no accident that Serbian diplomacy has been busy on the European front in recent days, warning of the risks for everyone that would stem from a secession of the province.
The general impression in any case is that Russia is now looking to the east, where it has found a more sympathetic hearing for its problems. The wars in Yugoslavia and Iraq, the “orange revolutions” in the countries on its borders, the enlargement of NATO, the missile shield, all are actions carried out by the United States oblivious to Moscow’s objections. It’s not therefore surprising that Russia is seeking guarantees for its security elsewhere. What remains unclear is whether this orientation is definitive or whether, when Bush and Putin have been replaced in little more than a year, there will be room for a rapprochement. In the meantime little Europe will need to produce miracles to survive. Owing to its perennial divisions, it risks returning to being merely a battleground for the clash of the superpowers.